Countries around the world are in different stages of managing COVID-19, and we are beginning to gain an understanding of how economies are responding to the sudden disruption of the pandemic.
According to the sources, LinkedIn’s hiring rate gives us early insight into how the labor market is responding and what might lie ahead for those who are just beginning to feel the impact of COVID-19. We also know from conversations on LinkedIn that some companies have been adapting interview processes that may slow the time-to-hire, while we may see others delay start dates for the time being.
As per the references, as we looked at the hiring data in two of the most impacted countries — China and Italy — we noticed a pattern. Shortly after each country issued mandatory quarantines, national hiring plummeted.
- About two weeks after we saw hiring growth contract in China, it plummeted to a low of -45% YoY. Hiring has slowly started to rebound as containment of the virus takes effect, but it is still hovering at -26% YoY even as people go back to work.
- In Italy, we saw a similar trend: three days after the country went on lockdown, hiring growth dipped below zero. And one week after the initial dip, hiring growth plummeted to a low of -40% YoY.
Based on the hiring trends it has been observed in China and Italy, it is anticipated that hiring growth in the U.S. will begin to show a similar sharp decline as soon as next week. A preview of a monthly hiring rate shows a slowdown as major cities like Seattle, New York and San Francisco mandate social distancing policies, and many companies in the U.S. that are able to are moving their workforces remote. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, the earliest publicly available labor market indicator in the U.S., also surged by 70K the week of March 8-14, reaching their highest level since September 2017.
Based on early trends in China, we’re hopeful that economic activity can resume once the virus is contained. With China’s hiring numbers beginning to move in a positive direction, Surveyors continue to monitor the data there, and globally, to see what we can expect as the impact of the virus makes its way around the world.